title: "Sample Opportunity: Time Alignment Approximation" summary: "Template for documenting a pre-opportunity before engineering implementation." author: "Insert name" created_at: "YYYY-MM-DD" status: "draft" priority: "high | medium | low" tags: ["arb", "btc", "hourly", "cross-venue"]

Opportunity Overview

What is the opportunity?

Provide a plain-English description of the edge and why it should exist.

Why now?

Explain timing, market structure, or catalysts that make this attractive.

Exchanges & Markets

Exchanges

• Exchange 1: [Name] — link: https://...
• Exchange 2: [Name] — link: https://...

Markets / Instruments

• Market A (Exchange 1): [Short description + example market URL]
• Market B (Exchange 2): [Short description + example market URL]

Data Inputs

Required data sources

• Prices / orderbooks:
• Reference price (if any):
• Market metadata:

Time alignment

Describe any time alignment assumptions (time zone, close/start times, fallback behavior).

Core Logic (Pseudo-code)

The function loops over each Kalshi market and performs up to four arbitrage checks per Polymarket-Kalshi pair, based on how the strikes compare:
  Polymarket strike > Kalshi strike: Check if buying Polymarket Down + Kalshi Yes costs < $1.00 (hedges the range between strikes).
  Polymarket strike < Kalshi strike: Check if buying Polymarket Up + Kalshi No costs < $1.00 (hedges the opposite range).
  Strikes equal — Pair 1: Check if buying Polymarket Down + Kalshi Yes costs < $1.00.
  Strikes equal — Pair 2: Check if buying Polymarket Up + Kalshi No costs < $1.00.

Signals & Thresholds

Go / No-Go

• Primary signal (example): total_cost <= 92
• Minimum edge (example): edge_cents >= 3
• Fees or slippage assumptions (example): fees_cents = 6
• Alerting behavior (e.g., “Go span” if edge >= 3 for 2+ observations within 120s)

Risk & Caveats

Known caveats

• Data source differences:
• Time drift:
• Liquidity / min size constraints:
• Resolution differences:

Outputs & Reporting

Required outputs

• Snapshot fields (list):
• Series fields (list):
• Reporting charts needed:

Implementation Notes

Parsing / mapping notes

Any naming patterns, slug formats, or tickers that matter.

Links

• Exchange 1 link:
• Exchange 2 link:
• Reference docs:

Next Steps

• [ ] Analyst validation
• [ ] Data collection plan
• [ ] Prototype code
• [ ] Local testing
• [ ] Reporting requirements

Short Form (Copy/Paste)

Title:
Summary:
Author:
Priority:

Exchanges:
- Exchange 1 + link:
- Exchange 2 + link:

Markets / Instruments:
- Market A:
- Market B:

Core Logic (pseudo-code):

Signals / thresholds:
- Go rule:
- Min edge:
- Fees/slippage:

Risks / caveats:

Outputs needed:
- Snapshot fields:
- Charts: